What next for the plunging copper prices?
The US copper price plunged by over 20% late on Wednesday as a knee-jerk reaction to President Trump’s decision to exclude refined copper from the planned import tariffs. Refined copper, also referred to as cathodes, has been the most imported form of the red metal ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
The possible re-exportation of recent shipments has pushed COMEX copper price below the previously steady support zone of $5.50 a pound to a three-month low. At the time of writing, the asset was trading at $4.54.
COMEX copper price hits three-month low after Trump’s surprise Proclamation
In recent months, US traders have been shipping huge volumes of copper from Europe and Asia as a buffer to the 50% import levies set to be in effect from 1st August. According to President Trump, the aggressive tariffs are part of his administration’s efforts to revive the country’s copper industry.
Since the tariff announcement earlier in the month, copper-laden ships have been heading to the US, with refined copper being the most imported form of the red metal. Infact, according to shipping data provider, Kpler, at least four additional shipments carrying 8,000 metric tonnes of refined copper are set to dock in Hawaii by 30th July.
With this aggressive buying, Trump’s decision to exclude cathodes from the stipulated import tariffs have sent the global copper market into shock.
While signing a Proclamation meant to address the national security threat from copper imports on Wednesday, Trump imposed a universal 50% levies on imported semi-finished copper products. The Proclamation further indicates that copper scrap and input materials, including cathodes, concentrates, copper ores, and anodes are excluded from the reciprocal tariffs.
The huge copper stockpiles that have been moving to the US in recent months saw LME inventories plunge by about 80% since the start of the year. Indeed, US traders had accumulated enough stock to satisfy demand for the remainder of the year.
As COMEX copper inventories accumulate to multi-year highs, LME stockpiles are also on recovery. Recent figures from the London Metal Exchange showed the inventory levels at a one-and-a-half year high. Following Trump’s surprise decision, the probable re-exportation of US copper shipments will further disrupt the red metal’s global trade flows.
COMEX copper price technical analysis
Copper price chart | Source: TradingView
COMEX copper price plunged by over 20% on Wednesday to a level last recorded in early May 2025. Prior to the drop, the red metal had been holding steady above the crucial support zone of $5.50 a pound even after pulling back from the all-time high hit about a week ago.
The freefall has seen copper price enter the oversold territory at a relative strength index (RSI) of 28. Besides, it has moved below the 20 and 50-day EMAs; indicating a shift in the market trend.
In the immediate term, copper price will likely hold steady above $4.50 as the bulls strive for a rebound above the psychologically crucial zone of $5.00. With the expected rebounding, the range between $4.67 and $5.00 is worth watching.
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