Updated July 31, 2026 — IONQ: $35.77 (July 30 close, NYSE), $36.20 in after-hours trading. IonQ reports second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, August 5, with a conference call at 4:30 PM ET. The stock jumped 11.82% on July 30 and closes out a brutal month anyway — down roughly 27% over 30 days and 58% below its 52-week high. Two things make this print unusually binary: the options market is pricing a 19.55% move in either direction, roughly double the stock’s 9.86% average post-earnings move over the last four quarters, and IonQ closes its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology today. Verdict: a high-variance event where the revenue line is close to pre-announced by guidance, so the stock will trade on the 2026 outlook and on what a newly owned chip foundry does to the cost base.
Key Facts
- Spot: $35.77 at the July 30, 2026 close, up 11.82% on the day, with a further 1.20% gain after hours to about $36.20, per Stock Analysis.
- Earnings date: Q2 2026 results after the close on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, with a call at 4:30 PM ET — confirmed by IonQ investor relations.
- Consensus: revenue of about $66.58 million, up roughly 222% year over year, on a loss of about $0.54 per share.
- Company guidance: Q2 revenue of $65–68 million; full-year 2026 revenue of $260–270 million, raised at Q1.
- Last quarter: Q1 2026 revenue of $64.7 million, up 755% year over year from $7.6 million.
- Implied move: options are pricing a 19.55% swing, versus an average absolute post-earnings move of 9.86% over the past four quarters.
- Balance sheet: approximately $3.1 billion in cash as of March 31, 2026.
- 52-week range: $25.89 to $84.64. Market cap about $13.35 billion on roughly 373.3 million shares.
- Analyst view: 12 analysts tracked by Stock Analysis average $69.11, with a low of $44.78 and a high of $100 — every published target sits above the current price.
The SkyWater Deal Closes Today
IonQ received final regulatory clearance this week to complete its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology, with closing set for July 31, 2026. SkyWater shareholders receive $35.00 per share — $15.00 in cash and $20.00 in IonQ stock. The Federal Trade Commission split 1-1 on whether to attach conditions requiring IonQ to pledge it would not disadvantage rivals that contract with SkyWater; the deadlock let the deal through unchanged, as Bloomberg reported.
Strategically this is the most consequential thing IonQ has done. It gives the company embedded, dedicated fabrication lines inside a domestic, Pentagon-accredited foundry, and makes it the only quantum hardware company with that setup — ending the trapped-ion industry’s reliance on foreign chip suppliers. SkyWater continues to operate under its own brand as a wholly owned subsidiary running its commercial pure-play foundry business.
It is also the third acquisition in a run. IonQ completed its $1.075 billion purchase of Oxford Ionics, which brought patented trapped-ion architecture and a European footprint, and announced its intent to acquire Vector Atomic to move into quantum sensing — clocks, gravimeters and inertial sensors, a business that has already won more than $200 million in government contracts. IonQ also holds a contract under DARPA’s Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum (HARQ) program.
What Actually Matters on August 5
The revenue line is the least interesting part. Management guided Q2 to $65–68 million and consensus sits at $66.58 million, squarely inside that band. Absent something unusual, revenue lands roughly where it was told to land, and a 222% year-over-year growth headline is already expected.
Three other things carry the stock:
- The full-year number. IonQ raised 2026 guidance to $260–270 million at Q1. Q1 plus guided Q2 gets to roughly $130 million, which means the second half has to deliver a similar amount. A reaffirmation is neutral; a raise on SkyWater contribution is the bull trigger; any trim would be read harshly against a stock priced at roughly 50 times full-year guided revenue.
- The cost base after three acquisitions. Oxford Ionics closed, SkyWater closes today, Vector Atomic is pending. Operating a foundry is a fundamentally different cost structure from selling quantum systems, and the first commentary on combined opex and on how SkyWater’s commercial foundry revenue will be reported is new information the market has not modeled.
- Cash burn against the $3.1 billion. That balance was struck on March 31, before the SkyWater cash component. The remaining runway, and any signal about further capital raises, matters more than the quarterly loss.
Why the Stock Has Been Falling
IonQ slid from a $49.31 close on June 26 to $35.91 by July 27 — about 27% in a month — with no company-specific bad news driving it. The move was sector-wide de-rating in speculative quantum names, and the stock now sits 58% below its $84.64 52-week high while still trading 38% above its $25.89 low.
The July 30 bounce fits the same pattern in reverse. Quantum names rallied together after rival D-Wave announced that AT&T would use its technology for network optimization — a datapoint about a competitor that lifted IonQ 8.4% on July 27 on the logic that large telecom buyers are entering the category at all. This is a sector that still trades on sympathy moves, which is worth remembering when reading any single-day price action into the print.
Scenario Analysis: The August 5 Print
These levels are anchored on the $35.77 July 30 close and on the 19.55% move the options market is pricing, not on analyst targets.
| Scenario | Level | Move from $35.77 | What gets it there |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$28.80 | −19.6% | Full-year guidance trimmed or merely reaffirmed while combined opex from Oxford Ionics and SkyWater comes in above expectations; the options-implied downside is realized and the $25.89 52-week low comes back into range. |
| Base | ~$36–38 | 0% to +6% | Revenue inside the $65–68 million guide, full-year $260–270 million reaffirmed, no negative surprise on burn. The stock holds its post-SkyWater level and waits for H2 execution. |
| Bull | ~$42.80 | +19.6% | A raise to full-year guidance incorporating SkyWater revenue, plus a credible path on foundry economics and new government or enterprise contracts; the implied upside is realized and the gap toward the $44.78 low analyst target closes. |
12-Month Analyst Targets (Low / Average / High)
Separately from the event scenarios above, every published 12-month target sits above the current price — so the analyst set is not a bear case, and the low end still implies meaningful upside.
| Analyst / measure | Target | Upside from $35.77 |
|---|---|---|
| Low target (of 12 tracked) | $44.78 | +25% |
| Needham — Quinn Bolton (May 7, 2026) | $65 | +82% |
| Consensus average | $69.11 | +93% |
| Northland — Nehal Chokshi (June 22, 2026) | $70 | +96% |
| Wedbush — Antoine Legault (May 7, 2026) | $75 | +110% |
| Rosenblatt — John McPeake (July 29, 2026) | $100 | +180% |
The consensus rating is Strong Buy. Note the dispersion: a $44.78-to-$100 range on a $35.77 stock means the sell-side does not agree on what this company is worth within a factor of more than two — which is itself the risk disclosure.
Quick Take
IonQ into August 5 is not a bet on the revenue line, which guidance has effectively pre-announced. It is a bet on whether a company that has spent roughly $2.9 billion on acquisitions in a single year can show that the pieces produce operating leverage rather than just a bigger cost base. The SkyWater close is a genuine structural differentiator — no other quantum hardware company owns a domestic Pentagon-accredited foundry — but it lands on a stock that has already fallen 27% in a month and trades at roughly 50 times guided full-year revenue with no profitability in sight. The options market’s 19.55% implied move is the honest summary: this print can reasonably resolve either way, and the $3.1 billion cash pile is what buys management time if it resolves badly.
How IonQ Compares to Its Quantum Peers
IonQ is the largest pure-play in a small, highly correlated group, and the peer set moves together on sector news. For the other names FinanceFeeds tracks with the same scenario framework, see our D-Wave (QBTS) bull and bear case — the company whose AT&T deal lifted the whole sector in late July — along with our Rigetti (RGTI) scenario analysis and our Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT) bull case versus its cash floor.
FAQ
When does IonQ report Q2 2026 earnings?
After the close on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, with a conference call at 4:30 PM ET.
What is the current IONQ stock price?
$35.77 at the July 30, 2026 NYSE close, up 11.82% on the day, and about $36.20 in after-hours trading.
What do analysts expect from IonQ’s Q2?
Revenue of about $66.58 million, up roughly 222% year over year, and a loss of about $0.54 per share. Company guidance was $65–68 million, so consensus sits inside the guided range.
How much could IONQ move on earnings?
The options market is pricing a 19.55% move in either direction — from $35.77 that is roughly $28.80 on the downside or $42.80 on the upside. The stock’s average absolute post-earnings move over the last four quarters was 9.86%.
What is the SkyWater acquisition?
A $1.8 billion purchase of SkyWater Technology closing July 31, 2026, paying SkyWater holders $35.00 per share in a mix of $15.00 cash and $20.00 IonQ stock. It gives IonQ a domestic, Pentagon-accredited chip foundry and makes it the first vertically integrated full-stack quantum platform company.
Is IonQ profitable?
No. Consensus expects a loss of about $0.54 per share for Q2 2026. The company held approximately $3.1 billion in cash as of March 31, 2026, which funds continued losses and acquisitions.
What is IonQ’s 2026 revenue guidance?
$260–270 million for the full year, raised at Q1 2026, implying organic growth of more than 100% year over year.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Equity markets are volatile and pre-earnings positioning carries elevated risk; price targets and scenarios are illustrative, not predictions. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. FinanceFeeds does not hold positions in the securities mentioned.
